Tesla’s Cybertruck has taken over social media and the EV world with an insane amount of buzz—from Kim Kardashian to Pharell, celebrities, and a few lucky customers (generally Tesla employees and residents of coastal states like CA, TX, FL, etc.) have been able to own and operate one.

But what about everyone else? Well, invites continue to go out—slowly, and generally to early reservation holders, so far with a reservation number of 1128xxxxx or lower.

And the kicker? These invites are for the Foundation Series Cybertruck, which requires a $20,000 premium.

On top of that, it’s possible that the non-Foundation Cybertruck (priced at $79,990) may also qualify for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, bringing the price to $72,490; a staggering $27,500 delta from the current Foundation Series AWD price.

Due to these potential metrics, many buyers are hoping to convert their Cybertruck reservation to an order, but not until the truck is cheaper, and the fully-optioned Foundation series isn’t required. But when will this be?

In this post, we’ll try to dissect the available information that we have, and give our best guess based on data and other approximations of when Cybertruck reservation holders can expect to be invited to configure a non-Foundation Cybertruck.

How Many Foundation Series Trucks Will Be Made?

There are many estimates on various sites, from 1,000 to 20,000—and Tesla has dropped a few nuggets of info here and there, but short of that, there’s been no hard confirmation.

Similar to the way they’ve rolled out other vehicles such as the Model 3 (which required buying more optioned versions before offering the cheaper versions), it makes sense to think that Cybertruck will follow the same path.

Tesla has a history of selling higher-ticket products to fund the cheaper, less expensive version of the same product line, and it seems this is currently happening with Cybertruck (which we can look at the production at Giga Texas to get some idea of the ramp).

YouTuber Brad Sloan does frequent drone flyovers of the factory, and as noted by Tesla news guru Sawyer Merrit, there were 156 Cybertrucks on the lot as of 2/25/24, which is very likely to increase.

 

Additionally, YouTuber Joe Tegtmeyer, who also does Giga drone flyovers, did what we think is a great job of analyzing the Cybertruck production ramp based on other previous models, and his own data.

Based on all currently available information, we estimate that Tesla will produce 25,000 Foundation Series Cybertrucks this year.

We’re a little less ambitious about the Foundation Series vs. the regular series trucks than some of the other estimates, but based on our own modeling, that’s what we think.

Interestingly enough, Tesla has updated their site to hint that later in 2024 (perhaps by the end of 2024), the non-Foundation configuration will be available because the price needs to be under $80,000 to qualify for the federal tax credit, by posting the following on the Cybertruck order page:

“Cybertruck is likely to qualify for the federal tax credit later in 2024.” Which again, may mean that’s when we can expect the Foundation Series production to stop.

When Will the Cybertruck Foundation Series Stop?

Given this number of roughly 25,000 Foundation Series Cybertrucks produced in 2024, when will the non-Foundation configuration be available?

Based on our data modeling, the non-Foundation series Cybertruck may be available for configuration in November 2024, with a potential delivery in Q4 2024, or early Q1 2025.

Is Cybertruck Production Really Sold Out for 2024?

On their most recent earning call (January 2024), Tesla mentioned that the conversion rate from reservations to orders has been “very encouraging,” and that “if this trend continues” builds will be “sold out for 2024.”

What exactly does this mean? Well, only Tesla knows, but we take it to mean that based on the number of people they have invited, and will invite, and the number of likely conversions, they expect this total number to meet their production capacity for 2024.

It doesn’t make a lot of sense that any capacity number is based on current orders/invites, as the reservation numbers people are posting are still fairly low, and many people have chosen to wait for the non-Foundation Cybertruck. But with 2M reservations, there are still a lot of people left to invite to configure a Foundation Series Cybertruck.

What’s Required on the Foundation Series that Isn’t on the Regular Cybertruck?

While the Foundation Series Cybertruck does carry a $20,000 premium over the non-Foundation model, there are some benefits to the buyers in the form of included options.

Luckily, Tesla isn’t just charging an arbitrary fee, they are just requiring a fully-optioned truck. Here’s a list of upgrades that the Foundation Series Cybertrucks have:

  • Limited-edition Configuration
  • Laser-etched Foundation Series Badge
  • Foundation Series Cabin Graphic
  • 20” Cyber Wheels With 35” Tires
  • White Décor
  • Premium Accessories
  • Powershare Home Backup
  • Powershare Mobile Connector
  • Full Self-driving Capability
  • Lifetime Premium Connectivity

The Cyberbeast Foundation Series Cybertruck also adds the following:

  • Off-Road Light Bar

And it’s unclear at this point (although likely) that the light bar will also be available for the AWD Cybertruck.

Are The Foundation Series Options Worth It? Will Early Adopters Lose Money on the Cybertruck?

Well, the most accurate answer to this is “it depends.” Because it truly depends on whether or not you were considering buying these options anyway.

We’ve blogged extensively about the value of full self-driving (FSD) in the used market, so having to purchase FSD at full price (vs. monthly) can really put some questions out there in terms of the future value of the Cybertruck. If you were to purchase FSD on a new Tesla and then resell it in a few months, the FSD would only be worth a fraction of what you actually paid.

So, in terms of Foundation Series options, FSD is probably the least “worth it” from an objective used market value perspective.

Beyond that, the other accessories will hold some value but it’s debatable (other than the wheels/tires) how much that will be worth.

The upcharge for the white interior, for example, doesn’t matter much in the used market, and the Foundation Series in and of itself isn’t a limited enough production run (or unique enough) to likely hold value on its own (based on the “Signature Series” Model S/X values over time as a comparison point).

However, the good news for early Cybertruck adopters is that due to a clause in the Cybertruck contract, no one is allowed to sell them for 12 months (without giving Tesla the first right of refusal, and obtaining permission).

So, this means that the first round of Cybertrucks to hit the used market with Tesla’s blessing (keyword here, “with Tesla’s blessing” as some have already been sold at dealer auctions for wild amounts) may fetch a premium to some degree, or at least recoup the Foundation Series upcharge (depending upon how saturated the Cybertruck market is at that point).

At the end of the day, the Foundation Series is really about paying for early access—and this might be worth it to some content creators and other enthusiasts who just want the truck sooner.

How Much Cheaper Is the Non-Foundation Cybertruck?

At the time of writing, the Foundation Series costs and extra $20,000, so that puts the non-Foundation AWD Cybertruck at $79,990 and the Cyberbeast at $99,990.

Will the Non-Foundation Cybertruck Qualify for the Federal EV Tax Credit?

Tesla currently produces the Cybertruck with the 4680 battery cell, which would likely quality for the Federal EV Tax Credit if the cost of the truck were under $80,000 now.

Because the Foundation Series is more expensive, the truck doesn’t currently qualify for the Federal EV Tax Credit, but this may change later in 2024.

When Will I Get My Cybertruck? (Foundation or Non-Foundation)

We built a Cybertruck reservation tracker/delivery estimator for fun that you can check out, and while no one knows for sure except Tesla, it seems like so far our modeling and estimates have been pretty close to actual delivery times reported by owners!

Looking for a Used Tesla You Can Get Now?

If you’re waiting on your Cybertruck, check out our used EV listings! You might find something you like in the meantime!